The Cognalysis Webinar Series
The Cognalysis Webinar Series seeks to provide a forum for the presentation and discussion of topics relevant to today’s practicing actuaries, and to give actuaries another option when pursuing continuing education in organized activities.
It’s our goal each month to bring to the actuarial community a webinar and a speaker in order to provide topical, timely, and free access to quality continuing education opportunities.
If you have suggestions for an upcoming webinar, or would like to volunteer to present a topic, please contact Alex Walrath at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Most Recent Webinar
Speaker: Chris Gross, Cognalysis
Stochastic simulation is a useful technique for modeling results of complicated problems having many random components and interdependencies. Whether by design or not, such simulation models often become black boxes which can be problematic for acting on results. Also, imperfect convergence of the pseudo-random results, particularly at a detailed level can lead to sub-optimal conclusions. For both of these reasons, it is very helpful to build models of the simulation results themselves. While these take the form of predictive models, it is really as an explanation, simplification, and convergence improvement that these models are useful. Some examples where such post-simulation models are useful include claim life-cycle models, catastrophe models, and DFA models. The approach will be described and we will also discuss concerns around contract issues regarding third party software where reverse engineering of models is prohibited.